The hispanic vote is increasingly a factor in many primary contests, and the upcoming election will be no exception. It should come as no surprise that immigration reform is a key topic for this growing demographic.
The candidates we’re tracking for 2016 should look no further than Obama’s efforts to court both women and hispanic voters in securing his last two election bids.
But within the media, immigration reform is struggling to hold reader attention. While the topic gained some rating ground this month, up +3 points at 78, the long term picture shows that it has been falling off a plateau that began in September 2013.
The 4-year trendline tells the main story. After a post-2012 election freefall, the trend saw amazing media coverage sparked by the nearly 200,000 women and children who crossed the U.S. boarder from Mexico over a short 6-month period. The topic gained nearly +20 points over the ensuing 12-month media coverage. Then the plateau and decline began.
The topic regained some lost momentum this month, but the prior 6-month period has cemented its declining media trend. Currently ranked #45 in our Political Trends Sector, the topic is off -15 positions over the prior year. Recent gains have almost erased the year-over-year loss, but media momentum has eluded the topic since the influx of women and children over the southern U.S. boarder in late 2012 created a media firestorm and resulting executive action by President Obama.
The concern amongst those targeting the hispanic vote is that with an increasingly strong economy, non-economic or job topics should be taking center-stage, like immigration reform. But immigration storyline is not sustaining the momentum from 2013/2014 (off -17 percent this month). Of course this could all change with another round of executive orders targeting immigration policy. But the once center stage immigration storyline is on a declining trendline.